U.S. Trade Deficit Probably Widened in September on Oil Imports

The U.S. trade deficit probably widened in September from a seven-month low as the price of imported oil jumped to a record, economists said ahead of a government report today.

The gap grew to $58.5 billion, from $57.6 billion in August, according to the median forecast in a Bloomberg News survey of 76 economists.

Exports may have cooled after setting records for six consecutive months, even as a weaker dollar and growing economies overseas sustain demand for American goods in coming months. Trade will continue to contribute to gross domestic product and help manufacturers weather a housing-related slump in demand.

``Imports should rise, with oil likely the biggest swing factor,'' said Neal Soss, chief economist at Credit Suisse Group Inc. in New York. ``External demand should continue to add to GDP and should provide an offset to the drag from housing.''

The Commerce Department will issue the report at 8:30 a.m. in Washington. Economists' estimates of the deficit ranged from $54.5 billion to $61.1 billion.

The price of imported petroleum rose 5.4 percent in September and was up 20 percent from the same time a year earlier, the biggest year-over-year increase since August 2005, the Labor Department reported last month.

The cost of all imported goods probably rose 1.2 percent in October following a 1 percent increase the previous month, led by another jump in crude prices, economists forecast a report from Labor today will also show.
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